How much does an affiliate site earn? The maths behind it

Ask what an affiliate site earns and you get answers across the whole range from zero to a full-time income – and the figures rarely come with documentation. The honest answer is not an amount but a calculation: income = traffic × click-through to the store × conversion rate × order value × commission rate. All five factors can be measured, they vary enormously from site to site, and their product is your monthly commission.

This article gives you the method instead of the number. We go through each factor in the formula, run three example scenarios and explain why there is no useful average for the industry. We run the affiliate network behind this page ourselves, so we know where the numbers come from – and where they do not.

The formula: five factors multiplied together#

Income per month = visits × click-through to the store × conversion rate × order value × commission rate. Because the factors are multiplied, an improvement in a single factor carries through to the whole result: double the conversion rate and you double the income with exactly the same traffic. That makes the formula more than an estimate – it is also your troubleshooting tool when the number disappoints.

• Visits – the number of people on your site in the period. For a niche site, organic search traffic is the typical engine, but newsletters, YouTube and social channels count in the same factor.
• Click-through to the store – the share of visitors who click on to the store via your links. See CTR (click-through rate). This factor is driven by placements, anchor texts and how ready to buy your traffic is.
• Conversion rate – the share of clicks that end as sales. See conversion rate. This factor is mainly owned by the store: price, shipping and checkout are their responsibility. You influence it by choosing programs carefully and sending traffic with purchase intent.
• Order value – what the customer buys for on average, excluding VAT. See AOV (average order value). Remember that commission is calculated on the amount without VAT – with Danish VAT of 25 %, an order of DKK 1,000 including VAT is DKK 800 in commission basis.
• Commission rate – the percentage you get of the order value. See commission. The rate is set by each program, and on Affilyflow the rate you see is the rate you get – the network fee is 20 % of the store's total price and is not deducted from your rate.

If you want to combine the three middle factors of the formula into one number, it is called EPC (earnings per click): income per click you send. EPC = conversion rate × order value × rate, and it is the best single number for comparing programs, because it is unaffected by how much traffic you have yourself.

Three worked examples – not three promises#

The table below runs three constructed scenarios through the formula: a small niche site, an established content site and a large site. The numbers are chosen to show the mechanics – they are not averages, not benchmarks and not measurements from our network. Your site can sit below scenario 1 or above scenario 3, and both are normal.

Notice two things. First, the factors typically rise together: a site with more traffic usually also has stronger positions in the search results and more purchase-ready traffic, so the scenarios differ in every factor – not just in visits. Second, the rate is set lower in the large scenario as a reminder that rates vary from program to program. The rate is a term you choose programs by, not a constant. Current programs and rates are in the program directory.

Note also what the table does not show: the amounts are commission earned, not paid out. The road from sale to money in the account has its own steps. We go through them at the end of the article and in full depth in from click to payout.

Why there is no useful average#

There are no public statistics on what Danish affiliate sites earn – and we know of none for other markets either: no authority collects the figure, we do not publish our affiliates' results – they are theirs – and the amounts circulating in blog posts and videos are self-reported, often by people whose actual business is selling courses in affiliate marketing. The selection is skewed at both ends: those who earn nothing do not write status updates about it, and those who show screenshots of big payouts usually have a motive.

More importantly: even if the average existed, it would tell you nothing. The spread is enormous. One site can sit at zero for a year and then grow month by month; another can sit steadily at a few hundred kroner for years; a third can pay a salary. An average of the three describes none of them. The formula, on the other hand, applies to all of them – the difference lies in the size of the factors, not in the maths.

What actually moves the number#

Traffic is the factor most people stare at, but the other factors decide what the traffic is worth. Three choices move more than anything else – and they are all made before you write the first article:

• Topic choice: are you writing about something people buy, or something people only read about? A topic with products in a sensible price range, ongoing news and natural comparisons gives better factors all the way through the formula than a topic without real purchases.
• Purchase intent: the search 'best espresso machine under DKK 3,000' and the search 'how does an espresso machine work' cover the same topic but give very different factors. The closer to the purchase, the higher the click-through and conversion rate – choose topics by where in the buying journey the reader is.
• Placements: where links and modules sit on the page matters more than how many there are. A comparison table at the top of the article works differently from a link buried in paragraph 14. Read how placements work with us, including how you see the exact page behind each click.

Then there are factors you do not own yourself: the program's terms. Rate, cookie window and any recurring commission vary from program to program. With us, the store chooses its cookie window between 14 and 90 days, and the rate can only be lowered once every 30 days – the latter enforced by the database, not by a policy in a document. The terms are shown openly on every program, so you can do the maths before you join. How much the window matters is clear in Amazon Associates in Denmark, where a click as a rule only counts for 24 hours.

The time horizon: the formula only works once the traffic is there#

SEO articles mature slowly. A new article on a young domain can take months to find its position in the search results, and the site as a whole has to build authority and an internal link structure before the traffic factor starts to move. So expect a long initial period where the formula gives numbers close to zero. That is not a sign that the method is failing – it is the traffic factor that has not been built yet. An SEO affiliate works on a different time scale from an ad campaign.

The delay is also why other people's income reports say so little: you see the result of their factors today, not the months or years it took to build them. Two sites with the same formula can be at very different points on the curve.

From commission earned to money in the account#

The formula calculates commission earned – not what lands in the account. With us there are three steps in between, and you should know them before you calculate anything:

The consequence for the calculation: multiply the formula's output by your expected approval rate. If the store sells goods with many returns, the real income will be below what the formula shows – and that is a term of the deal, not a fault.

If you want to try the formula on real programs, you can sign up as an affiliate and see rates, cookie windows and terms in the program directory. It requires no subscription – you do not pay to join, and the maths is yours from day one.